FX Commentary 23 Aug 2012

AUDUSD has been in bullish trend since early June'12. Higher high and higher low has been formed after the strong rejection at 0.9600.

I have just entered a long position on this pair just now as there is a price action signal. A bullish engulfing bar has been formed at support level (1.04000) which turned from resistance level indicating price action signal for upward movement. 

The target profit we wish to get from this setup is at 1.08000 which is slightly lower than the second key resistance level (2nd red line).  However, we should also pay attention at 1.06250 level as it is first barrier that the price going to face, as it is the level where the price faced obstacles before and retraced back to support level (1.04000). Should there be any bearish price action signal at 1.06250, we will close the position with small profit. 

I hereby posted the price chart on the setup:

AUDUSD - Daily chart

The setup of this trade is as follow:


Entry                :     1.05149
Profit Target     :     1.08000
Stoploss           :     1.04000
Reward            :     2,851 pipettes
Risk                 :     1.149 pipettes
R/R ratio          :     2.48

(Note: The above calculation not inclusive of spread charged by different brokers)

Update on FX setup on Gold (22 Aug 2012)

The breakout occurred in Gold pair has been so strong and fast-paced and it almost reach my target profit (1670.00) when I open my platform for daily routine checking in this morning.

It took me awhile in deciding whether should I capture the profit or not even before my target profit is hit. At last, I have made up my mind to close this position at 1,662.85 to capture profit due to following reasons:

(i) The breakout is strong and huge, and it is caused by the FOMC meeting yesterday on "possible stimulus programme". A retracement will likely to take place pretty soon after such surge. I can enter long position again at swing low should the trend now is bullish. 

(ii) I able to earn the breakout movement and did not lose anything if I close my position now - greedy check.

(ii) The current price level is close to my profit target and it is impossible to capture 100% of the price movement everytime. 

On top of that, I also posted the Gold price chart before and after the setup below:

Gold - Daily chart (before)

Gold - Daily chart (after)

Update on FX setup on USDJPY (2 Aug 2012)

The dollar got its butt kicked yesterday. USDJPY finished the day 88 pips below its opening price at 79.30. So why did the get whooped in yesterday's trading? 

It was mainly due to FOMC meeting minutes showed that the Fed is eager on providing the economy more stimulus. The Fed said in its statement that "substantial and sustainable" sign of economic growth are absent. And so, another further monetary policy easing maybe be "warranted fairly soon". The FOMC meeting minutes also showed that many voting members believed that additional easing would be likely needed soon unless there is a significant improvement in the economy. It was a sharp contrast to June's minutes where only a few member saw the need for further easing.

This was evidenced with the huge bearish bar formed in yesterday's trading day. I have closed this position with small profit to prevent further losses since the market sentiment now is bearish on USD. Please see the charts below before and after. 

USDJPY - Daily chart (before)

USDJPY - Daily chart (after)

FX setup commentary 22 Aug 2012

I have also been looking at commodity market as well as my broker also offers trading on commodities. I would like to share my current long entry on Gold in the afternoon today.

Gold - Daily Chart

The price has been consolidating within the range of 1530.00 to 1630.00. You can see that 1630.00 previously was a support level but it turned into resistance level since beginning of May after the price breakthrough that level. 

This resistance level (1630.00) has been holding strong and the price has tested this key level for 5 times! It shows how strong and important level is this level. However, a breakout has occurred in this afternoon with bullish bar and I have entered long position after the candlestick closed. The setup of this trade is as follow:

Entry                :     1638.92
Profit Target     :     1670.00
Stoploss           :     1620.50
Reward            :     3,108 pips
Risk                 :     1.842 pips
R/R ratio          :     1.69

(Note: The above calculation not inclusive of spread charged by different brokers)

You can see that how the price rallied after the breakout. It seems that very high likely my profit target will be hit on the next couple of days. I will update the status of this trade in the future, stay tuned!!!

FX Setup Commentary 17 Aug 2012

Hi there, there was another setup that I took for NZDUSD pair in this afternoon. This price movement of this pair is up to our anticipation where there was price action from the key level - 0.80450 signalling bullish movement. If you could remember, I have discussed my anticipation on this pair in my previous post, and you can see the price moved exactly to our anticipation.

Before:

NZDUSD - Daily chart (before)

After:

NZDUSD - Daily chart (after)

I entered long position when there was a bullish bar formed at swing low + key level. The setup of this trade is as follow:


Entry                :     0.81040
Profit Target     :     0.82000
Stoploss           :     0.80335
Reward            :     960 pipettes
Risk                 :     705 pipettes
R/R ratio          :     1.36

(Note: The above calculation not inclusive of spread charged by different brokers)

Update on FX setup on EURGBP (9 Aug 2012)

I've just closed my short position on EURGBP with a small profit which I entered not long ago. A trend reversal could be just started as there the pair is forming higher low and higher high after the rejection from major support level at 0.77600. 

The price failed to form a new low after the rejection from the major resistance level (0.79600) and two bullish bars have been formed after a higher low formed. That is where I closed my short position.

I hereby upload the price chart before and after the trade:

EURGBP - Daily chart (Before)

EURGBP - Daily chart (after)

FX setup commentary 9 Aug 2012

Hey dude! Just want to share with you guys on the trade I placed today.

I just entered a short position on EURGBP currency pair in the afternoon when the candlestick closed. Please see the price chart below for the price action that convinced me to take this trade.

EURGBP - Daily chart

As you can see from the chart, it is obvious that the bias of this pair is bearish. Therefore, we should look for opportunity to short this pair. This pair has been in downward movement until a bullish pin bar was formed at 0.77600 (green line). Then the price was in retracement stage after the pin bar and it went all the way up and retest the resistance level turned from previous support level (yellow line). 

And it is up to my expectation where the price failed to break above the resistance level and it is at swing high of a major down trend. I entered short position without hesitation when I saw a bearish engulfing bar formed in this afternoon which suggests that the price is now ready to go down!!!

The setup of this trade is as follow:


Entry                :     0.78961
Profit Target     :     0.77800
Stoploss           :     0.79500
Reward            :     1,161 pipettes
Risk                 :     539 pipettes
R/R ratio          :     2.1

(Note: The above calculation not inclusive of spread charged by different brokers)