Wednesday, 8 August 2012

Update on FX setup on NZDUSD (30 July 2012)

Remember back on 30 July 2012 I had placed a long position on NZDUSD upon breakout from resistance level (0.80500). I have just closed this position today with profit when I saw reversal signal. To recall, I hereby upload the price chart I posted in my earlier post when I entered the long position:

NZDUSD - Daily Chart (before)

We anticipate that after the breakout occurred, the price will rally as there will be more buyers coming in to join the ride and seller are leaving the market. And guess what? The price continue to go upwards direction and rally until today - a big bearish engulfing bar formed at round number (0.82000). This big bearish engulfing bar signalling losing steam of bullish trend and the price is high likely to retrace now. I closed this long position despite my profit target set at 0.82500 was not hit.


See the chart below for the price action after my entry:

NZDUSD - Daily chart (after)


So what's next?

So what is next we going to expect on this pair? Our bias on this pair is still bullish unless a new low is formed on the following days. Since a big bearish engulfing bar has just been formed, therefore the price is likely to be in retracement stage now. We should wait for the price to retrace back to the key level (previous resistance level potentially turned into support level) and expect to see a bullish price action (such as bullish pin bar, bullish engulfing bar or 2 bars reversal) for us to rejoin the current bullish trend.

NZDUSD - Daily Chart (Plan)

Tuesday, 7 August 2012

Why Price Action instead of indicators?


Why Price Action?

There are many novice traders, including myself, started out trying to find an indicator or automated trading system that we able to press start on and then just sit back and cash the cheques. This is what I thought (like many) that would lead to the lifestyle I desired! After all, isn’t that what a forex trader should be looking for?

In the past, I have been constantly searching for the “Holy Grail”, once a particular indicator/system failed then I started looking into other indicators that I could place on the chart that would give me an advantage of placing a winning trade. The mindset I had (and many others have) was that the more indicators the more chance I had of placing a winning trade. I had all these coloured lines and moving averages. At that time I thought I knew how they all worked but looking back now it just make myself confused. It is not surprising to find that this story sounds familiar as I have found this to be a very common story for many novice struggling traders.


When my Trading Started Turning Around

My trading started to turnaround when I finally stumbled upon Price Action trading. Price Action trading has changed my trading career drastically. I stripped of all the indicators and began to read just the price. I found that the more I made things simpler the more success I began to have. I went from being uncertain in entering trades to entering trades with confidence. Each entry I made are supported with clarified justification - why, how and when I enter and exit a trade. No longer was I looking at a chart and wondering what some other indicator was saying or if one line crossed what I should be doing. I began to learn that everything the big guys do in the market can be gathered from exactly how the price behaves on the chart. I began placing trades and my account began to turn the corner.



Keep it Simple Stupid (K.I.S.S)!!!!

K.I.S.S - This acronym is as applicable to the field of Forex trading as it is to any. Simplicity is the most often and easily over-looked factor to profiting long-term in any financial market. One of the biggest problems I have found in trading is that people think that trading should be complicated so they make it so. The more they lose the more they form the idea that trading should be complicated and the cycle goes. In fact, no fancy indicators or complicated systems are needed to make money consistently in the Forex market. The correct knowledge of exactly how price works and also money management techniques is all a trader needs to begin to turn their trading around.

Learning the art and skill of price pattern recognition will provide us with a perspective and not a system. How did famous traders like George Soros, Jesse Livermore, and Warren Buffet make their millions (and billions) in the market? Not through complicated trading software or lagging indicator based trading method, but through a discretionary market perspective that was developed through an awareness of price dynamics and market condition in various financial markets they traded.

Chart below shows a clean and simple Price Action Chart VS over cluttered charts:

Clean Chart




















Confusing Chart
































Learning to trade with Price Action will only make you a better trader

Finally, I would say that perhaps the best reason to learn how to trade with price action is that no matter what strategy or system ultimately end up trading with, knowing how to read and trade off the raw price action of a market will only make it better. Price action is the foundation of any trading method, whether you are using an indicator-based system or a software-based system, the signals that systems generates are ultimately derived from the raw underlying price movement. Therefore, having a thorough and practical knowledge of how to trade off of price action will help you understand your trading method much better than if you don’t.

Whether you decide to use price action in conjunction with another trading method or as a stand alone trading strategy, learning how to trade off of it is only going to make you a better trader. This is a realization that typically takes most traders a while to figure out as they struggle with mechanical indicator and software based systems. Once you learn how to trade with price action it will be like turning on the lights; you will instantly gain a clearer and more effective understanding of how the markets move. 

I have now turned my hand to help aspiring traders find their way out of the darkness and confusion that indicators create. I urge all traders to strip all the confusion (indicators) of their charts and begin to learn Price Action. If you want to learn more about how to read and trade off of the raw price action of the market, you should checkout my blog as I will post my price action analysis and setups.







Monday, 6 August 2012

FX Commentary 6 Aug 2012

I have just entered a long position for AUDJPY this afternoon after a breakout occurred in this pair.

AUDJPY - Daily Chart

As you can see that this particular pair has been in bullish trend after there was a big bullish pin bar formed at 75.50. That was the key support level for this pair. 

The price has been moving upwards but it finds difficulties in breaking through the resistance level (82.500) which turned from support level in the past. It is only until last Friday a breakout occurred and the price able to break and closed above the resistance level. It suggests that the market now have enough buyers to push the price upwards and sellers are now leaving the market. We anticipate that the price will rally after such breakout. The next resistance level is at 85.00 as shown in the graph above.

The setup of this trade is as follow:


Entry                :     82.926
Profit Target     :     84.500
Stoploss           :     81.830
Reward            :     1,574 pipettes
Risk                 :     1,096 pipettes
R/R ratio          :     1.4

(Note: The above calculation not inclusive of spread charged by different brokers)



Thursday, 2 August 2012

FX Commentary 2 Aug 2012

Just want to share one of my trade I placed today on USDJPY.

USDJPY - Daily Chart

This pair has been consolidating in range between 78.00 to 80.50 since beginning of May. I have just entered long position when I saw bullish engulfing bar formed on the key support level at 78.00 in this afternoon. This level used to be resistance level in the past and it has now turned into support level. You can see how the price being rejected and pushed higher in the past around this level. The setup of this trade is as follow:


Entry                :     78.453
Profit Target     :     80.400
Stoploss           :     77.900
Reward            :     1,947 pipettes
Risk                 :     553 pipettes
R/R ratio          :     3.5

(Note: The above calculation not inclusive of spread charged by different brokers)

  



Sunday, 29 July 2012

FX setup commentary - 30 July 2012


NZDUSD - Daily Chart

This pair has caught my attention as breakout occurred. The price has breakthrough the key resistance level at 0.80500 last week with "big" and "obvious" bullish engulfing bar. The 0.80500 level used to be support level in the past somewhere around March'12 to May'12.

The bias of this pair now is bullish and and it breakout from key level (0.80500). We anticipate that the price will rally (never come back) and moving upwards to the next key resistance level - 0.82500. The setup of this trade is as follow:

Entry                :     0.80864
Profit Target     :     0.82500
Stoploss           :     0.80100
Reward            :     1,636 pipettes
Risk                 :     764 pipettes
R/R ratio          :     2.1

(Note: The above calculation not inclusive of spread charged by different brokers)


Introduction of myself

My name is Desmond Chin.

I am a part-time forex trader and I trade solely using high quality Price Action signals from key levels along with strict money management to protect capital at all times. Most of my trading is done on daily charts.

In the past, I have been flooded myself with numerous indicators, such as Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, Stochastic, MACD and William Percent Range. All these did not help in my forex trading but detrimental to my forex trading. I faced substantial losses by trading with indicators and I have also blown up few live accounts.

Is it until when I come across a simple and straight forward forex trading strategy - Price Action. My trading performance has improved drastically after I learnt Price Action. I am a person who always prefer something that is straight forward and simple, that's what I have tweaked my trading technique to reflect that.

I started this blog to commit myself to maintain a trading journal for my live trading as well as to share and help other traders to learn how to trade Price Action. I also wish that this blog could be a great learning avenue for traders who are interested in Price Action trading method.

I hope everyone enjoys this blog and please feel free to comment and ask questions regarding my Price Action analysis on forex market.