Wednesday 22 August 2012

FX Commentary 23 Aug 2012

AUDUSD has been in bullish trend since early June'12. Higher high and higher low has been formed after the strong rejection at 0.9600.

I have just entered a long position on this pair just now as there is a price action signal. A bullish engulfing bar has been formed at support level (1.04000) which turned from resistance level indicating price action signal for upward movement. 

The target profit we wish to get from this setup is at 1.08000 which is slightly lower than the second key resistance level (2nd red line).  However, we should also pay attention at 1.06250 level as it is first barrier that the price going to face, as it is the level where the price faced obstacles before and retraced back to support level (1.04000). Should there be any bearish price action signal at 1.06250, we will close the position with small profit. 

I hereby posted the price chart on the setup:

AUDUSD - Daily chart

The setup of this trade is as follow:


Entry                :     1.05149
Profit Target     :     1.08000
Stoploss           :     1.04000
Reward            :     2,851 pipettes
Risk                 :     1.149 pipettes
R/R ratio          :     2.48

(Note: The above calculation not inclusive of spread charged by different brokers)




Update on FX setup on Gold (22 Aug 2012)

The breakout occurred in Gold pair has been so strong and fast-paced and it almost reach my target profit (1670.00) when I open my platform for daily routine checking in this morning.

It took me awhile in deciding whether should I capture the profit or not even before my target profit is hit. At last, I have made up my mind to close this position at 1,662.85 to capture profit due to following reasons:

(i) The breakout is strong and huge, and it is caused by the FOMC meeting yesterday on "possible stimulus programme". A retracement will likely to take place pretty soon after such surge. I can enter long position again at swing low should the trend now is bullish. 

(ii) I able to earn the breakout movement and did not lose anything if I close my position now - greedy check.

(ii) The current price level is close to my profit target and it is impossible to capture 100% of the price movement everytime. 

On top of that, I also posted the Gold price chart before and after the setup below:

Gold - Daily chart (before)

Gold - Daily chart (after)

Update on FX setup on USDJPY (2 Aug 2012)

The dollar got its butt kicked yesterday. USDJPY finished the day 88 pips below its opening price at 79.30. So why did the get whooped in yesterday's trading? 

It was mainly due to FOMC meeting minutes showed that the Fed is eager on providing the economy more stimulus. The Fed said in its statement that "substantial and sustainable" sign of economic growth are absent. And so, another further monetary policy easing maybe be "warranted fairly soon". The FOMC meeting minutes also showed that many voting members believed that additional easing would be likely needed soon unless there is a significant improvement in the economy. It was a sharp contrast to June's minutes where only a few member saw the need for further easing.

This was evidenced with the huge bearish bar formed in yesterday's trading day. I have closed this position with small profit to prevent further losses since the market sentiment now is bearish on USD. Please see the charts below before and after. 

USDJPY - Daily chart (before)

USDJPY - Daily chart (after)



FX setup commentary 22 Aug 2012

I have also been looking at commodity market as well as my broker also offers trading on commodities. I would like to share my current long entry on Gold in the afternoon today.

Gold - Daily Chart

The price has been consolidating within the range of 1530.00 to 1630.00. You can see that 1630.00 previously was a support level but it turned into resistance level since beginning of May after the price breakthrough that level. 

This resistance level (1630.00) has been holding strong and the price has tested this key level for 5 times! It shows how strong and important level is this level. However, a breakout has occurred in this afternoon with bullish bar and I have entered long position after the candlestick closed. The setup of this trade is as follow:


Entry                :     1638.92
Profit Target     :     1670.00
Stoploss           :     1620.50
Reward            :     3,108 pips
Risk                 :     1.842 pips
R/R ratio          :     1.69

(Note: The above calculation not inclusive of spread charged by different brokers)


You can see that how the price rallied after the breakout. It seems that very high likely my profit target will be hit on the next couple of days. I will update the status of this trade in the future, stay tuned!!!



Friday 17 August 2012

FX Setup Commentary 17 Aug 2012

Hi there, there was another setup that I took for NZDUSD pair in this afternoon. This price movement of this pair is up to our anticipation where there was price action from the key level - 0.80450 signalling bullish movement. If you could remember, I have discussed my anticipation on this pair in my previous post, and you can see the price moved exactly to our anticipation.

Before:
NZDUSD - Daily chart (before)


After:
NZDUSD - Daily chart (after)

I entered long position when there was a bullish bar formed at swing low + key level. The setup of this trade is as follow:


Entry                :     0.81040
Profit Target     :     0.82000
Stoploss           :     0.80335
Reward            :     960 pipettes
Risk                 :     705 pipettes
R/R ratio          :     1.36

(Note: The above calculation not inclusive of spread charged by different brokers)





Tuesday 14 August 2012

Update on FX setup on EURGBP (9 Aug 2012)

I've just closed my short position on EURGBP with a small profit which I entered not long ago. A trend reversal could be just started as there the pair is forming higher low and higher high after the rejection from major support level at 0.77600. 

The price failed to form a new low after the rejection from the major resistance level (0.79600) and two bullish bars have been formed after a higher low formed. That is where I closed my short position.

I hereby upload the price chart before and after the trade:

EURGBP - Daily chart (Before)

EURGBP - Daily chart (after)



Thursday 9 August 2012

FX setup commentary 9 Aug 2012

Hey dude! Just want to share with you guys on the trade I placed today.

I just entered a short position on EURGBP currency pair in the afternoon when the candlestick closed. Please see the price chart below for the price action that convinced me to take this trade.

EURGBP - Daily chart

As you can see from the chart, it is obvious that the bias of this pair is bearish. Therefore, we should look for opportunity to short this pair. This pair has been in downward movement until a bullish pin bar was formed at 0.77600 (green line). Then the price was in retracement stage after the pin bar and it went all the way up and retest the resistance level turned from previous support level (yellow line). 


And it is up to my expectation where the price failed to break above the resistance level and it is at swing high of a major down trend. I entered short position without hesitation when I saw a bearish engulfing bar formed in this afternoon which suggests that the price is now ready to go down!!!

The setup of this trade is as follow:


Entry                :     0.78961
Profit Target     :     0.77800
Stoploss           :     0.79500
Reward            :     1,161 pipettes
Risk                 :     539 pipettes
R/R ratio          :     2.1

(Note: The above calculation not inclusive of spread charged by different brokers)



Wednesday 8 August 2012

Update on FX setup on NZDUSD (30 July 2012)

Remember back on 30 July 2012 I had placed a long position on NZDUSD upon breakout from resistance level (0.80500). I have just closed this position today with profit when I saw reversal signal. To recall, I hereby upload the price chart I posted in my earlier post when I entered the long position:

NZDUSD - Daily Chart (before)

We anticipate that after the breakout occurred, the price will rally as there will be more buyers coming in to join the ride and seller are leaving the market. And guess what? The price continue to go upwards direction and rally until today - a big bearish engulfing bar formed at round number (0.82000). This big bearish engulfing bar signalling losing steam of bullish trend and the price is high likely to retrace now. I closed this long position despite my profit target set at 0.82500 was not hit.


See the chart below for the price action after my entry:

NZDUSD - Daily chart (after)


So what's next?

So what is next we going to expect on this pair? Our bias on this pair is still bullish unless a new low is formed on the following days. Since a big bearish engulfing bar has just been formed, therefore the price is likely to be in retracement stage now. We should wait for the price to retrace back to the key level (previous resistance level potentially turned into support level) and expect to see a bullish price action (such as bullish pin bar, bullish engulfing bar or 2 bars reversal) for us to rejoin the current bullish trend.

NZDUSD - Daily Chart (Plan)

Tuesday 7 August 2012

Why Price Action instead of indicators?


Why Price Action?

There are many novice traders, including myself, started out trying to find an indicator or automated trading system that we able to press start on and then just sit back and cash the cheques. This is what I thought (like many) that would lead to the lifestyle I desired! After all, isn’t that what a forex trader should be looking for?

In the past, I have been constantly searching for the “Holy Grail”, once a particular indicator/system failed then I started looking into other indicators that I could place on the chart that would give me an advantage of placing a winning trade. The mindset I had (and many others have) was that the more indicators the more chance I had of placing a winning trade. I had all these coloured lines and moving averages. At that time I thought I knew how they all worked but looking back now it just make myself confused. It is not surprising to find that this story sounds familiar as I have found this to be a very common story for many novice struggling traders.


When my Trading Started Turning Around

My trading started to turnaround when I finally stumbled upon Price Action trading. Price Action trading has changed my trading career drastically. I stripped of all the indicators and began to read just the price. I found that the more I made things simpler the more success I began to have. I went from being uncertain in entering trades to entering trades with confidence. Each entry I made are supported with clarified justification - why, how and when I enter and exit a trade. No longer was I looking at a chart and wondering what some other indicator was saying or if one line crossed what I should be doing. I began to learn that everything the big guys do in the market can be gathered from exactly how the price behaves on the chart. I began placing trades and my account began to turn the corner.



Keep it Simple Stupid (K.I.S.S)!!!!

K.I.S.S - This acronym is as applicable to the field of Forex trading as it is to any. Simplicity is the most often and easily over-looked factor to profiting long-term in any financial market. One of the biggest problems I have found in trading is that people think that trading should be complicated so they make it so. The more they lose the more they form the idea that trading should be complicated and the cycle goes. In fact, no fancy indicators or complicated systems are needed to make money consistently in the Forex market. The correct knowledge of exactly how price works and also money management techniques is all a trader needs to begin to turn their trading around.

Learning the art and skill of price pattern recognition will provide us with a perspective and not a system. How did famous traders like George Soros, Jesse Livermore, and Warren Buffet make their millions (and billions) in the market? Not through complicated trading software or lagging indicator based trading method, but through a discretionary market perspective that was developed through an awareness of price dynamics and market condition in various financial markets they traded.

Chart below shows a clean and simple Price Action Chart VS over cluttered charts:

Clean Chart




















Confusing Chart
































Learning to trade with Price Action will only make you a better trader

Finally, I would say that perhaps the best reason to learn how to trade with price action is that no matter what strategy or system ultimately end up trading with, knowing how to read and trade off the raw price action of a market will only make it better. Price action is the foundation of any trading method, whether you are using an indicator-based system or a software-based system, the signals that systems generates are ultimately derived from the raw underlying price movement. Therefore, having a thorough and practical knowledge of how to trade off of price action will help you understand your trading method much better than if you don’t.

Whether you decide to use price action in conjunction with another trading method or as a stand alone trading strategy, learning how to trade off of it is only going to make you a better trader. This is a realization that typically takes most traders a while to figure out as they struggle with mechanical indicator and software based systems. Once you learn how to trade with price action it will be like turning on the lights; you will instantly gain a clearer and more effective understanding of how the markets move. 

I have now turned my hand to help aspiring traders find their way out of the darkness and confusion that indicators create. I urge all traders to strip all the confusion (indicators) of their charts and begin to learn Price Action. If you want to learn more about how to read and trade off of the raw price action of the market, you should checkout my blog as I will post my price action analysis and setups.







Monday 6 August 2012

FX Commentary 6 Aug 2012

I have just entered a long position for AUDJPY this afternoon after a breakout occurred in this pair.

AUDJPY - Daily Chart

As you can see that this particular pair has been in bullish trend after there was a big bullish pin bar formed at 75.50. That was the key support level for this pair. 

The price has been moving upwards but it finds difficulties in breaking through the resistance level (82.500) which turned from support level in the past. It is only until last Friday a breakout occurred and the price able to break and closed above the resistance level. It suggests that the market now have enough buyers to push the price upwards and sellers are now leaving the market. We anticipate that the price will rally after such breakout. The next resistance level is at 85.00 as shown in the graph above.

The setup of this trade is as follow:


Entry                :     82.926
Profit Target     :     84.500
Stoploss           :     81.830
Reward            :     1,574 pipettes
Risk                 :     1,096 pipettes
R/R ratio          :     1.4

(Note: The above calculation not inclusive of spread charged by different brokers)



Thursday 2 August 2012

FX Commentary 2 Aug 2012

Just want to share one of my trade I placed today on USDJPY.

USDJPY - Daily Chart

This pair has been consolidating in range between 78.00 to 80.50 since beginning of May. I have just entered long position when I saw bullish engulfing bar formed on the key support level at 78.00 in this afternoon. This level used to be resistance level in the past and it has now turned into support level. You can see how the price being rejected and pushed higher in the past around this level. The setup of this trade is as follow:


Entry                :     78.453
Profit Target     :     80.400
Stoploss           :     77.900
Reward            :     1,947 pipettes
Risk                 :     553 pipettes
R/R ratio          :     3.5

(Note: The above calculation not inclusive of spread charged by different brokers)